《Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks（智库双螺旋法理论）》深刻把握智库科学化发展的总体趋势，总结智库研究的共性特征和存在的突出问题，从外循环、内循环、“十个关键问题”和方法集工具箱四个层次构建智库双螺旋法理论体系，重点围绕智库问题的解析、智库问题牵引下的情景分析、智库问题研究的不确定性分析、智库问题研究的政策模拟分析、智库研究的循环迭代、DIIS与MIPS的耦合关系、智库研究的专家组织与管理、人机结合的智库问题研究支持系统、客观分析与主观判断的结合、智库产品质量管理等方面展开文理融合、理实融通的论述，标志着智库理论研究已从智库研究范式走向智库理论方法并正在走向智库科学体系。
目錄：
ContentsPrefacePart Ⅰ An Overview of the Double Helix Methodology in Think TanksChapter 1 Connotation and Development of Think Tanks 31.1 Connotation and Functions of Think Tanks 31.2 Construction and Development of Think Tanks 71.3 Practice of High-end Think Tank Construction in China and the Future Development 14References 18Chapter 2 Theory Structure of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks 202.1 Main Content of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks 202.2 Ten Key Issues of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks 352.3 Four-layered Model of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks 542.4 Summary 66References 67Chapter 3 Theoretical Value and Significance of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks 693.1 Promoting the Six Transitions in Think Tank Research 693.2 Building an Academic Foundation for Think Tank Research 823.3 Providing Input and Directions for the Construction of the Think Tank Discipline 1133.4 Summary 117References 118Part Ⅱ The Key Issues of the Double Helix Methodology in Think TanksChapter 4 Decomposition of Think Tank Problems 1214.1 Defining the Problem 1224.2 Describing the Problem 1254.3 Constructing the Framework 1274.4 Formation of the Sub-problem Set 1304.5 Case Study 1324.6 Summary 136References 137Chapter 5 Scenario Analysis of Think Tank Problems 1395.1 The Importance of Scenario Analysis in the Study of Think Tank Issues 1395.2 The Role of Scenario Analysis in Think Tank Research 1425.3 Key Elements of Scenario Analysis and Its Methods 1435.4 Processes of Scenario Analysis and Its Functions in the DIIS Framework 1475.5 The Role of Scenario Analysis in the Realization of MIPS Objectives 1525.6 Summary 158References 159Chapter 6 Uncertainty Analysis in Think Tank Problem Study 1616.1 The Connotation of Uncertainty 1626.2 Uncertainty in Think Tank Problems and the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks 1646.3 Uncertainty Analysis Methods for Think Tank Problems 1676.4 Summary 172References 173Chapter 7 Policy Simulation Analysis in Think Tank Problem Research 1757.1 Policy Simulation in Think Tank Problem Research 1757.2 Advances in Policy Simulation for Problem Research in Think Tanks at Home and Abroad 1787.3 Decomposition of Policy Simulation Process on the Basis of the DIIS Process Convergence Method and the MIPS Logic Layer Method 1837.4 Representative Methods of Policy Simulation in Think Tank Problem Research 1977.5 Summary 201References 203Chapter 8 Cyclic Iteration of Think Tank Research 2048.1 Overview of the Cyclic Iteration in Think Tank Research 2048.2 Triggering Situations and Stages Involved in the Cyclic Iteration of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks 2098.3 Cyclic Iteration Process of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks 2168.4 Case Study 2308.5 Summary 232References 232Chapter 9 DIIS and MIPS Coupling 2349.1 Characteristics of DIIS-MIPS Coupling 2359.2 Structure of DIIS-MIPS Coupling 2379.3 DIIS-MIPS Coupling in Research Practice 2459.4 Summary 249References 249Chapter 10 Organization and Management of Think Tank Experts 25010.1 The Role of Think Tank Experts in Think Tank Research 25110.2 Expert Functions and Knowledge Characteristics 25410.3 Expert Selection 25710.4 Expert Participation 26010.5 Summary 266References 267Chapter 11 Human-machine Research Support System in Think Tank Research 26811.1 Necessity for the Construction of Decision Support System in Think Tanks 26811.2 Main Types of Decision Support Systems in Think Tanks 27211.3 Research Hotspots of Think Tank Decision Support Systems 27611.4 Architecture of the Decision Support System in the Framework of Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks 27811.5 Summary 292References 292Chapter 12 Combination of Objective Analysis and Subjective Judgment 29312.1 The Significance of Combining Objective Analysis and Subjective Judgment 29412.2 Concept of Combining Objective Analysis and Subjective Judgment 29512.3 Principles， Criteria and Methods of Combining Objective Analysis and Subjective Judgment 30012.4 The Application of Combined Objective Analysis and Subjective Judgment 30312.5 The Progress of Combining Objective Analysis and Subjective Judgment in Different Domain Perspectives 30912.6 Summary 312References 313Chapter 13 Product Quality Management 31513.1 Characteristics and Classification of Think Tank Products 31513.2 Quality Requirements for Think Tank Products 32013.3 Quality Management of Think Tank Products 32913.4 Summary 333References 334
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